A Monash University expert is available to comment on the energy market operator’s warning of gas shortages from 2028 in southern states as supplies fall faster than demand, how this will affect gas prices, and what measures can be taken to mitigate impact.
Associate Professor Roger Dargaville, Director Monash Energy Institute, Resources Engineering, Faculty of Engineering
Contact details: +61 450 501 248 or media@monash.edu
- Energy systems
- Grid resilience
- Energy storage
- Renewable energy
The following can be attributed to Associate Professor Dargaville:
“AEMO’s Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) has been released today and forecasts that natural gas consumption in Australia will continue to be an important part of the Australian energy and industry sector, but will continue to gradually decline into the foreseeable future.
“Increases in electrification of domestic and industrial heating are key drivers in this decline for demand in natural gas. The GSOO also suggests that without changes to planned production, gas supply may not meet demand in 2026 and beyond – this is not a forecast of a lack of gas supplies, but a signal to the gas sector that increases in production in addition to what is currently planned may be required.
“It’s important to note that two thirds of the gas produced in Eastern Australia is exported as liquified natural gas (LNG). Industrial use of gas as a feedstock and for heat is the next most intensive, followed by residential and commercial use, with gas for power generation the least intensive.
“Exports of LNG are forecast to decline into the future as the resources are depleted and global demand gradually decreases. One sector that is forecast to increase in demand is for gas fired power generation from around 2035 onwards as more coal fired power stations are retired from the system.
“As global demand for natural gas remains significant and resources are depleted, it is unlikely that international prices will decrease, meaning gas as a fuel will remain expensive.
“At the household level, switching to electricity for heat pumps for heating and induction for cooking will result in lower energy bills in the long run, and improved indoor air quality. And of course, burning natural gas results in carbon dioxide emissions, so to reduce global warming impacts we should be moving away from gas as quickly as possible.”
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