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Crises can lead to a 50 per cent drop in share price, new research

SenateSHJ 3 mins read
  • 80% of listed companies studied experienced a drop in share price during a crisis
  • The average drop in share price was 12%
  • The median earnings per share drop was 100%
  • On average, share prices took 60 days to recover
  • Crises involving casualties saw an average share price drop of 24.4% and a median earnings per share drop of 191%
  • Environmental crises saw an average share price drop of 23.4% and a median earnings per share drop of 222%.

Sydney, 20 May 2024 -- New research has highlighted the magnitude of some of the greatest business crises of over 40 years, with some companies taking years to recover from the financial and reputational damage. In some cases - the Star Group and SenseTime Group, the share price has yet to recover. Ardent Leisure Group took years to recover, while others, Union Carbide and Insys Therapeutics, went out of business.

The Crisis Value Erosion Index report, launched today by communication consulting firm, SenateSHJ, analysed the financial impacts of crises on 70 listed, Australian and international companies. These included, among others, the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill, the 2014 Malaysian Airlines MH370 flight disappearance, multiple Facebook privacy issues and the 2021-2022 Star Group money laundering case.

Eighty per cent of companies evaluated saw a drop in share price, with the most significant drop experienced by BP (50%) following the Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill. BP’s share price took more than three years to recover.

Modelling used metrics such as share price and earnings per share drop, days to share price recovery, as well as trend-adjusted recovery to quantify how these crises impacted the companies involved and over what time.

The average time for share price recovery of all companies analysed was 60 days.

The research categorised the nature of each crisis, the response to it and relevant background information such as the sector.

The data shows that businesses in the mining and materials sector had the highest average share price drop of 21.9%. This was followed closely by retail (18.5%) and travel (17.5%).  

Crises involving casualties saw an average share price drop of 24.4% (and an average EPS drop of 191%) followed by environmental damage (a 23.4% average share price drop and a 222% average EPS drop) and then defects and recalls (16.6% average share price drop and a 124% average EPS drop).

“The Crisis Value Erosion Index places a hard number on reputation when things go wrong,” says SenateSHJ partner, Craig Badings.

“The numbers show how devastating a crisis can be for a company and its shareholders and this doesn’t even touch on the brand and personal reputational impacts felt by the company or the executives involved.

“Placing a dollar value on a crisis is a stark reminder to companies how important it is to spend the right amount of time, money and effort on risk management.

“We have seen time and again that companies with the right crisis preparation, management systems, tools and support teams in place are in the best position to minimise the long-term damage from a crisis. They also tend to recover quicker.”

--ENDS--

Interviews available with:

Craig Badings, Partner, SenateSHJ Australia

The full report and more information can be downloaded here

 

About SenateSHJ

SenateSHJ was founded in 2002 and is now one of Australasia's most successful independent consultancies. We have won multiple awards, including being recognised in the 2021 Holmes Report, which ranked us in the top 250 for public relations agencies in the world.

Our diverse backgrounds include government, healthcare, journalism, media, marketing and business consulting, digital and social strategy management, as well as communication consulting. We pride ourselves on our work, our people, and our industry.


Contact details:

For further information, contact:

Craig Badings, SenateSHJ Australia, Mob: +61 413 946 703, craig@senateshj.com.au

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