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International News, Political

EXPERT: No drastic change in Iran after President Ebrahim Raisi’s death

Charles Darwin University 2 mins read

21 MAY, 2023

Who: Charles Darwin University political expert Dr Nathan Franklin.

Topics:

  • The politics of Islam.
  • The future of the Iranian regime.

Contact details: Call +61 8 8946 6721 or email media@cdu.edu.au to arrange an interview.

Quotes attributable to Dr Nathan Franklin:

"Celebrations will be short lived for the enemies of the late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. This is because those wanting drastic change will be disappointed. The regime will immediately do what they do best, which is regime survival. The supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is the number one man in the country, because Iran is a theocratic (religious) state, will ensure that politics and society remain in line with Shia Islamic values. Reports in the Western media about a power struggle are over exaggerated, at least if people think that Iran is going to change any time soon. The best we can hope for is someone less restrictive and anti-West, like Hassan Rouhani, who was president from 2013 to 2021.

“In 2002, the then President George Bush, at his State of the Union Address, stated that North Korea, Iran, and Iraq, constitute ‘an axis of evil’. The West intervened in Iraq, which resulted in a pyrrhic victory, as well as the rise of Islamic State in the region. But Iran and North Korea continue, as do their major allies, namely Russia and China. In fact, none of these states appear to be collapsing anytime soon; if anything, these regimes have gotten stronger and smarter about how to survive.

“The responses from the international community are reflective of who Iran’s friends are, as well as who is willing to extend an olive branch. Those that have sent condolences, include China, Russia, Egypt, Hamas, Iraq, Japan, Jordan, Lebonan’s Hezbollah, Malaysia, Pakistan, Qatar, Sudan, Syria, Turkey, Yemen’s Houthis, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela, as well as the Pope, European Union, United States of America, and India. All will be hoping for stability in Iran and the Middle East. According to the Iranian constitution, the country must hold elections within 50 days of the president’s death, perhaps on 28 June. Given the internal dislike for the late president’s domestic policies, particularly towards women, the winner could be more ‘liberal’ within the limits of what can be tolerated. However, the war is Gaza may provide favourable conditions for someone more hardline. Whoever wins, there are no signs of regime change, at least not for the foreseeable future.”


Contact details:

Raphaella Saroukos she/her
Research Communications Officer
Marketing, Media & Communications
Larrakia Country
T: +61 8 8946 6721
E: media@cdu.edu.au
W: cdu.edu.au

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