Skip to content
International News, Political

Monash expert: UK election results

Monash University 2 mins read

The UK election exit polls are predicting a Labour landslide, ending 14 years of Conservative government rule. A Monash expert is available to talk about what this election result means for the UK and the rest of Europe, as well as the rising popularity in Nigel Farage’s far right political party Reform.

 

Monash-Warwick Alliance PhD Candidate Tom Howe, Politics and International Relations

Contact details: +61 403 184 356 or thomas.howe@monash.edu

 

The following can be attributed to PhD Candidate Tom Howe:

 

“While not as big as the most outlandish polls, Labour nevertheless looks set for a sizable majority of around 170. Presuming the exit poll holds – and there are a lot of three-way marginals that may undermine it – then this would be a slightly smaller majority than the one secured by Tony Blair in 1997. Considering the size of the 2019 majority that Sir Keir Starmer had to overturn, the victory is still one of historic proportions. 

 

“It will go under-reported, but one significant feature of the last week of the campaign was a significant drop off in support for Labour. In fact, Labour look set to romp home with a landslide majority on a vote share lower than that which was achieved by Jeremy Corbyn in 2017. This, along with Jeremy Corbyn’s increasingly likely re-election, will give sucker to the left, which is nonetheless set to enter parliament in an historically weak position. The voters who seem to have deserted Labour in the final days of the campaign look like they went for Reform, who have been returned as the second party in several of the early declaring northern seats. Labour may have won back the red wall, but its foundations are shallow.

 

“The other big winners of the night look like the Liberal Democrats and the Reform – the parties responsible for splitting the Tory vote across the country. The Lib Dems look to have finally recovered from their time in coalition, and are hoping to just about equal their previous 2005 high. If the Lib Dems have pushed the Tories in the blue wall, then Reform have contributed to their collapse in the red wall. How the Tory Party responds to these dual pressures will be one of the defining issues of the new parliament.

 

“Provided the exit poll holds, the Tories look to have avoided the worst case scenario. There is, however, no escaping the fact that the 2024 election looks set to be their worst performance ever. It will be interesting to see how the upcoming leadership contest plays out; the Tories will almost certainly shift right, but how closely they associate themselves with Reform will depend on the leader.

 

“The SNP looked to have performed terribly. The nationalist party – which has been the dominant Scottish force in Westminster for nearly a decade – faced similar challenges to the Tories, with leadership that failed to deliver and which was mired in allegations of corruption. Whether the SNP are a spent electoral force will, in part, depend on the new Prime Minister’s ability to rebuild the country. If he fails to deliver, then the SNP will have a case to claim that both of the main Westminster parties do not work in Scotland’s interests.”

 

For more Monash media stories visit our news and events site: monash.edu/news

For any other topics on which you may be seeking expert comment, contact the Monash University Media Unit on +61 3 9903 4840 or media@monash.edu

More from this category

  • Energy, Political
  • 22/07/2024
  • 15:27
Climate Council & Smart Energy Council

*REMINDER: MEDIA BRIEFING* Understanding Australia’s Energy System: A guide to the National Energy Market

Energy is shaping up to be a key election issue, and Australia’s energy system is complicated and changing. The Climate Council and the Smart Energy Council are hosting a background briefing for journalists on the essentials of the Australian energy system, particularly thinking of those of you who might be new to the energy beat, need a refresher on the system or have a burning question for an expert. Our independent experts will explain what the east coast grid and National Energy Market actually look like, and what we do and don’t need to ensure a reliable supply in the…

  • Energy, Political
  • 19/07/2024
  • 11:11
Climate Council & Smart Energy Council

*BRIEFING INVITE* Understanding Australia’s Energy System: A guide to the National Energy Market

Energy is shaping up to be a key election issue, and Australia’s energy system is complicated and changing. The Climate Council and the Smart Energy Council are hosting a background briefing for journalists on the essentials of the Australian energy system, particularly thinking of those of you who might be new to the energy beat, need a refresher on the system or have a burning question for an expert. Our independent experts will explain what the east coast grid and National Energy Market actually look like, and what we do and don’t need to ensure a reliable supply in the…

  • Political, Science
  • 18/07/2024
  • 08:01
Parliament of Australia

Treaties Committee to examine extension of Australia-US scientific balloon agreement

TheJoint Standing Committee on Treatieswill hold a public hearing today for its inquiry into theExchange of Notes to extend the Exchange of Notes constituting an Agreement between the Government of Australia and the Government of the United States of America to Amend and Extend the Agreement concerning the Conduct of Scientific Balloon Flights for Civil Research Purposes of 16 February 2006. The treaty action concerns the extension of a 2002 agreement between the Australian and US Governments which would allow the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to continue conducting scientific balloon experiments in Alice Springs. Committee Chair,Mr Josh Wilson…

Media Outreach made fast, easy, simple.

Feature your press release on Medianet's News Hub every time you distribute with Medianet. Pay per release or save with a subscription.