Thursday, August 29. The Australian Energy Market Operator has released its Electricity Statement of Opportunities, which shows renewable energy, storage and transmission is making Australia’s grid more reliable.
The ESOO confirms renewable energy provides 40% of the electricity in Australia’s main grid, and that we can power the nation past the end of coal-fired power generators by keeping new renewable and storage projects on track. AEMO’s update also confirms that the biggest risk of blackouts is if we slow or stop delivery and investment of clean energy.
Experts available to comment:
Stephanie Bashir, Nexa Advisory CEO
“AEMO’s latest ESOO should be a source of comfort to households, businesses and government, about our power reliability over the next ten years.
“This year's ESOO reflects an improved reliability outlook due to new renewable energy generation storage developments and transmission projects progressing.
“The ESOO is reassuring, but it is still incumbent on governments – particularly New South Wales - to ensure there are clear delivery plans and accountability mechanisms to deliver transmission, generation and storage projects in the most timely and cost effective way.
“This also shows that the recent extension of Eraring must be a one-off. The New South Wales government must get the transition back on track.
“Governments need to act with urgency because delays put upwards pressure on consumers’ bills, even if the lights don’t go out!
“AEMO have modelled four potential sensitivities over the next ten years. Even under its worst case, there are likely to be only very small power shortfalls that can easily be reduced by accelerating residential and commercial rooftop solar and batteries.
“The reassurance from this modelling does not mean that industry and governments can sit on their hands. There is an ever present need to get on with it!"
Tim Buckley, Climate Energy Finance Director
“AEMO’s new 10 year Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) concludes there is no reliability gap until 2034 in any state in the National Electricity Market (NEM) unless there are project delays in the deployment of replacement capacity.
"AEMO forecasts show that power supply reliability levels can be maintained over most of the next 10 years – assuming programs and initiatives already established are delivered on time and in full.
"We simply need a lot more zero-emissions energy capacity approved and built, particularly utility-scale renewables. Now is the time for urgency and upscaling of ambition by our state governments, particularly given looming end-of-life coal capacity closures.
"Any shortfalls that result from delays in building of replacement capacity are smaller than AEMO forecast earlier in 2024, which was used to justify $450m of coal subsidies by the NSW government for Origin Energy to extend the life of massive, polluting coal clunker Eraring. More coal subsidies are an untenable tax on the public and should be ruled out.
"The solution to our concurrent energy, cost of living and climate crises is an acceleration of the transition of the energy market to low-cost, clean, reliable firmed renewables at speed and scale.
"State governments need to pick up the pace on project approvals and strategic public-interest investment into firmed renewables to lock in our energy security into the future.”
For full response please see here, and for interview requests contact tim@climateenergyfinance.org or 0408 102 127 or annemarie@climateenergyfinance.org or 428 278 880
Marilyne Crestias, Clean Energy Investor Group interim CEO
"CEIG is reassured to see the reliability outlook improving, thanks to the progress towards commissioning 5.7 gigawatts of new generation and storage capacity and 365 kilometres of transmission in the National Electricity Market (NEM). This is a positive step forward in the energy transition.
"The bulk of this capacity, 3.9 gigawatts of batteries (13.5 gigawatt-hours of storage), underscores the critical role that battery technology will play in ensuring system reliability as we transition away from coal-fired generation.
"AEMO’s latest Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report highlights the urgent need to deliver new generation and transmission projects to meet reliability standards. This is a clear call to action.
"CEIG continues to advocate strongly for market reforms and policies that will ensure the timely delivery of essential renewable energy, storage, and transmission projects. These are crucial for Australia to meet its climate targets and provide more affordable electricity for consumers."
Tristan Edis, Green Energy Markets Director
John Grimes, Smart Energy Council CEO. For interviews with John please contact Tim on tim.lamacraft@smartenergy.org.au or 0448 972 192
Jay Gordon, Energy Finance Analyst at Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. For interviews with Jay please contact Amy on aleiper@ieefa.org or 0414 643 446
Contact details:
Dan Veldre on 0408 972 997 or dan.veldre@climatemediacentre.org.au
Sean Kennedy on 0447 121 378 or sean. kennedy@climatemediacentre.org.au
