Investors have been warned there is already significant evidence climate change concerns are impacting the manner in which investments are being returned.
Financial reports equating to almost 300,000 years of combined data show Australia ranked among the most at-risk nations and was trepidatious about the way shareholders were rewarded.
University of Queensland researcher Dr Lin Mi said analysis of 2000-plus Australian companies revealed they were less likely to pay shareholders a cash dividend, similar to many overseas markets where climate change issues are pressing.
“Instead, we found that firms in countries with high climate risk would offer to repurchase the shares from the investors,” Dr Mi said.
“Aside from Australia, countries that displayed this propensity of shifting from paying dividends to repurchasing shares included the USA, China and the Philippines.”
Offering to buy back shares from investors – rather than offering ongoing, incremental cash payouts – is typically favoured when a company feels the share price is undervalued and wants it increased.
However, it can also be a strategy designed to mitigate future unpredictable risks.
“The rationale is that, with dividends, investors expect at least the same return in the future, and a reduction or omittance of dividends is typically associated with a share price drop,” Dr Mi said.
“However, there is no such expectation for repurchases, as there is little reputational penalty for firms which fail to complete previously announced repurchase programs.
“A payout policy favouring repurchases over dividends provides firms more financial flexibility in managing the risk of future climate disasters and resultant financial distress.”
Dr Mi and research collaborators analysed 36,373 firms from 45 countries.
There were three main angles researchers assessed the issue from: the individual firm’s vulnerability to climate change, people’s attitude and awareness to climate change, and the nation’s mindset regarding risk-avoidance.
“Where firms and people were more aware of climate risk and the national culture emphasised avoiding uncertainty, repurchasing shares was more common than cash dividends,” Dr Mi said.
“The results were robust, accounting for organisational characteristics such as profitability, cash holdings and cash flow volatility.
“Factors specific to nations, such as oil prices, carbon emission allowance prices, and political and economic uncertainty were also factored into findings.
“The World Health Organisation estimates climate change will cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths between 2030 and 2050, while Morgan Stanley estimates natural disasters cost the world US$650 billion between 2016 and 2018.
“Governments, organisations and businesses have recognised immediate actions must be taken to manage risks and slow global warming.
“In response, firms alter their investment and financing policies. This study adds to the growing literature showing how firms change their payout policies with detailed international evidence.”
The study, published in the Journal of Banking and Finance, was co-authored by Professor Wen He of Monash University, Australia, and Yuyuan Chang of South China University of Technology.
Dr Mi acknowledges financial support received from the University of Queensland Business School 2024 Principles for Responsible Management Education (PRME) Research Translation Fund.
Contact details:
Contact: Dr Lin Mi – [email protected], +61 (0) 431 185 045.