Soccer is evolving with higher passing rates and faster ball speed, a UNSW expert has shown.
If the experience of watching a FIFA World Cup soccer final is intense, spare a thought for the players, who are competing at an ever increasing intensity, according to a new study published in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport.
Professor Kevin Norton from the School of Health Sciences at UNSW Sydney analysed broadcast footage of 12 FIFA World Cup finals – 2014-2022 for men and 1991-2023 for women – to assess trends in the game.
Prof. Norton reviewed historical video footage with the support of computer-based tracking technology to track and quantify patterns, using what is called a retrospective correlation design. The study built on Prof. Norton’s previous analysis of men’s World Cup soccer finals games from 1966-2010, so ultimately took in the broadcast footage of 15 men’s FIFA World Cup finals (1966-2022) and 9 women’s finals (1991-2023) to quantify changes over time in specific metrics of finals games.
“The study confirms what football fans are likely to have observed, and that is that football is evolving for both the men’s and women’s game,” says Prof. Norton.
“You can see that successful approaches stick around and unsuccessful attributes tend to disappear,” says Prof. Norton, who is an expert in the evolution of elite sports performance.
“Looking at the World Cup finals was a way to see what is bringing the most success in terms of the evolution of soccer. And both the men’s and women’s game are on a similar trajectory, at a very similar rate,” he says.
The study
Games were analysed as halves to determine trends within games, and extra time (played if the scores are tied at the end of World Cup finals) was not included in this analysis.
The study looked at three broad categories: 1) game ‘structure’ using indicators such as the number and duration of play and stop periods, 2) distances and speed of ball movement and 3) passing rates relative to play time and overall ball movement.
The study found that total stoppage time, ball speed and passing rates increased significantly for both men and women, with ball speed increasing faster for women than men as speeds have converged over the last decades.
Game structure
By measuring play and stop patterns within games, the study found that total play times for men and women have remained unchanged over time (at around 50 minutes per game). However, total game stoppage time – during which the clock stops – has shown progressive increases.
Women’s play percentage decreased significantly across time from an average of 65% to 55% of total game time to match current men’s finals games play percentages. And the duration of stoppages has increased for both men and women.
“The increased stoppage time is likely allowing for an elevated intensity of play due to the opportunity for physiological recovery during stoppages,” explains Prof. Norton.
Ball movement
The distance the ball travels during a game showed no significant change over time for men, but it increased for women. The speed of ball movement, however, has increased significantly in both men’s and women’s games. The study noted that the ball speed in women’s games increased at a greater rate than in men’s games as the women’s ball speed continues to converge with the men’s.
Passing rates
Passing rates continue to increase for both men and women as skills and accuracy further advance. Higher passing rates require superior decision-making skills, stealth movements and rapid ball control.
Key findings
“Speed is increasingly an advantage in football, which means all teams are looking to sign up faster players, and in turn they need to be skilful while moving fast. Players need to be able to control the ball almost instantaneously in a dense environment now, which is a change you can see over time,” says Prof. Norton.
“The increased speed also means players need the ability to make decisions quickly, along with being accurate and fast in passing,” he says.
Observing that success in the World Cup is linked with increased speed, and skill at speed, means teams are likely to focus their talent development on players with these attributes.
“Similarly, training and development will evolve to look at how to support the higher physical demands on players, by ensuring energy supply, and strategies to prevent fatigue and injury,” says Prof. Norton.
“If these trends continue, pace, power, rapid decision-making and the ability to pass the ball precisely at high speed will become even more important,” he says.
The women’s game
This is the first study that has measured Women’s World Cup soccer finals, and the evolution of the game has not been documented across this period.
“There has been significant underrepresentation of female athletes in sports science and medicine publications in most sports,” says Prof. Norton.
“One of the interesting findings of this study is that both games are on the same trajectory. The professionalisation of women’s soccer has meant women are playing full-time, and the speed and style of the game is now resembling the speed and style of the men’s game, showing that the model is successful, otherwise the teams wouldn’t continue on that pathway,” he says.
Study limitations
The study is based on 15 men’s games played over a 56-year period and 9 women’s games over a 32-year period. And although the World Cup finals represent competition at the pinnacle of soccer performance, it may not be representative of soccer evolution in general. Games can also vary depending on contexts such as weather conditions, team strategies such as time wasting, refereeing style, score-line, injury and substitution use.
“Despite these game-to-game influences, we can observe an evolution of the game, and measure it to confirm statistically significant trends,” says Prof. Norton.
The future
“Modern games are all about playing in very close, high-density environments where players need to think quickly to skilfully move the ball through that traffic. That’s the way it’s going, but can the game ultimately get faster?” asks Prof. Norton.
As the game evolves, the skills of stars like Lionel Messi and Sam Kerr will become a benchmark rather than an exception.
Another consequence of increased intensity is the toll it takes on players’ bodies.
“Playing at such intensity every game takes its toll on the body and is associated with higher injury incidence. Managing players through appropriate training loads, recovery strategies and rehabilitation programs will become even more critical,” says Prof. Norton
And on a final practical note, says Prof. Norton: “Players who can succeed at the pinnacle of sport are rare and finding them will involve searching every corner of the world ... and they will be remunerated accordingly.”
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