THE CLIMATE COUNCIL’S HEAT MAP tool (embargoed to February 27) reveals regional electorates will face some of the worst increases in hot days if Australia and other nations fail to follow through on their current climate commitments.
Under a highly polluting or a “drill, baby, drill” scenario, which calculates heat changes if there’s no action to cut back on burning coil, oil and gas, parts of Queensland, WA and the NT will swelter through days over 35℃ for more than half the year by 2090.
The modelling also shows that the worst heat will hit communities least able to cope with it, including poor electorates, those with greater numbers of older Australians and children under five years old. The bulk of these communities are located in regional areas.
For example, children in the Northern Territory’s Lingiari, Australia’s poorest electorate*, face spending the majority of their lives sweating through extreme heat by 2090, with an expected 235 days over 35℃ each year.
In New South Wales, Lyne has the largest proportion of people over 65 of any Australian electorate, and is set to swelter through three times more hot days by 2050 (from 3 days to 9 days) while the nearby Cowper electorate also has a high proportion of people over 65 and is set to swelter through an extra four days of heat by 2050.
In Victoria, one in four voters in Flinders and Wannon are over 65. Flinders faces double the number of hot days on average while Wannon will see almost double by 2050.
Long-term Cowper resident Maura Luxford said: ‘’The heat is already unbearable in my part of regional Australia. Many of my elderly friends have endured another grueling summer, and it’s taking a toll. I’m seeing my kids less because they don’t want to visit at Christmas when it’s so hot.
“As a grandmother, I worry about the future our children will inherit. These extremes will only get worse unless we act. We need to keep going with our switch to clean energy - we can’t afford to reverse course.'"
Climate Councillor Professor David Karoly said: “This updated heat map tool comes as the world experienced the hottest January on record, right on the heels of 2024 being the hottest year on record globally.
“Heat can impact anyone but those over 65 and children under five are most at risk of becoming ill on hot days and during heatwaves. As a climate scientist and a grandparent I’m alarmed at the heat our communities are facing if we don’t forge ahead with rapid cuts to climate pollution.
“Even a small increase in the number of hot days or nights can damage our ecosystems and our health. For example, Tasmania’s expected increase of an average of just one more day over 35°C would have a major detrimental impact on its coastal rainforests. These figures are also average increases, which means there will be some years in which many more extreme hot days are experienced than the projected average number over two decades.”
Note - key heat statistics from each state and territory are attached and also available online here
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Heat change examples in Australia’s most populous states by 2090 Note: Numbers rounded to 1 decimal place New South Wales
Victoria
Queensland
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* Poorest electorate calculated by the Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage.
ENDS
For interviews with Cowper resident Maura Luxford, please contact Jemimah Taylor on 0478 924 425 or jemimah.taylor@climatemediacentre.org.au
For everyone else please contact Jacqui Street on 0498 188 528 or jacqui.street@climatecouncil.org.au
Or the Climate Council media team on media@climatecouncil.org.au or call 0485 863 063.
For further information, go to: climatecouncil.org.au
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