As residents of South-East Queensland and Northern New South Wales make final preparations for the crossing of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, many may be wondering what role climate change is playing in this weather system.
Scientists say a warmer world means fewer but more destructive cyclones, as CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology forecast in the 2024 State of the Climate report: “Fewer tropical cyclones, but with higher intensity on average, and greater impacts when they occur through higher rain rates and higher sea level.”
Climate Council experts are available to unpack the links between cyclones and climate pollution, including how recent record-breaking sea surface temperatures could supercharge Tropical Cyclone Alfred and unleash huge volumes of rain, fierce winds and storm surges riding on higher seas along the highly populated NSW-Queensland coast.
The following climate scientists, local voices and insurance experts are available for interview:
Climate Councillor, Professor David Karoly
David was Leader of the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub in the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program, based in CSIRO, during 2018 to June 2021. Prior to that he was also a member of the Climate Change Authority, advising the Australian government on responding to climate change and was involved in the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2001, 2007, 2014 and 2021 in several different roles. David is also a Professor Emeritus at the University of Melbourne.
Location: Melbourne
Climate Councillor Professor David Karoly said: “As the Queensland Premier noted, a cyclone hitting south-east Queensland is unusual, but not unprecedented. What is worrying about this system is that it could bring flash flooding, destructive winds and coastal storm surges to highly populated areas.”
"The extreme rainfall associated with the Tropical Cyclone is being made heavier by the higher moisture content in the atmosphere, due to higher atmospheric and sea surface temperatures, thanks to climate pollution,” Professor Karoly said.
“The coastal storm surges, erosion and coastal flooding will be much worse due to the sea level rise in the region, which is more than 20cm since 1900 due to climate pollution.”
Professor Karoly said that Tropical Cyclone Alfred developed in the wake of record-breaking hot annual sea surface temperatures for the Australian region in 2024, around 0.89 °C above the 1961–1990 average.
“These warmer waters have contributed to devastating flooding in north Queensland last month and could supercharge Tropical Cyclone Alfred unleashing flooding, destructive winds and powerful storm surges this week in South-East Queensland and Northern New South Wales.”
Climate Council Fellow, Dr Simon Bradshaw
As Research Director (Adaptation and Resilience) with Climate-KIC Australia, Simon oversees large, leading-edge research projects aimed at building the resilience of Australian communities and industries to fires, floods, extreme heat, sea level rise and other impacts of climate change. Climate-KIC Australia is based within the University of Technology Sydney’s Institute for Sustainable Futures.
Location: Sydney
Dr Simon Bradshaw can talk about the challenge of climate resilience and the effect of compounding disasters, how many homes in the firing line have also experienced floods in the past five years.
Dr Jean Renouf founder and chair of Plan C, academic at Southern Cross University and on-call firefighter. He can talk about how best to prepare and adapt communities across Australia who may be faced with increasing disasters due to climate change.
Location: Lismore, NSW.
Dr Karl Mallon, CEO of Climate Risk Group said:
“In 2023 our modelling identified this exact region of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales as being at growing risk from tropical cyclones, as warming sea temperatures drive cyclones further south. Insurers are also starting to understand these trends. It is only to be expected that insurance premiums will rise in areas where the risk of damage from cyclones increases,”
“Our modelling suggests that higher intensity cyclones are increasingly likely for these areas and should they hit, the damage will be devastating. Homes in these regions simply aren’t built to withstand high intensity storms like these,” said Dr Mallon.
Farmers for Climate Action CEO Natalie Collard, representing 8,400 farmer members and 80,000 community supporters, said:
“From the farmer point of view, it’s often not the first disaster which financially cripples a family and community - it’s the second one,” Ms Collard said.
“The people of Lismore saw unprecedented floods just three years ago, destroying businesses, farms and lives. It's heartbreaking that this region is facing yet another crisis.
"These communities have endured homes submerged under metres of water, displacement, and endless battles with insurance red tape, yet came together to rebuild their lives. Now, they must brace for a cyclone.”
ENDS
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Contact details:
For interviews with Professor David Karoly or Dr Simon Bradshaw please contact Jacqui Street 0498 188 528 / jacqui.street@climateconcil.org.au
For Farmers for Climate Action or Climate Risk Group and Dr Jean Renouf contact Jemimah Taylor 0478 924 425 / jemimah.taylor@climatemediacentre.org.au
Or contact the Climate Council media team on media@climatecouncil.org.au or call 0485 863 063.
