New report reveals 5.6 million homes at bushfire risk, nearly 1 million at flood risk, and 23,000 people displaced annually as Australia’s housing system nears collapse
The devastating floods in NSW’s Mid North Coast - which have left 1,153 homes uninhabitable and damaged a further 1,831 are the latest example of a growing national emergency, where climate extremes and housing insecurity are colliding.
New findings from the Housing, Homelessness and Disasters National Symposium paint a stark picture of a country under intensifying pressure:
- 5.6 million homes at risk of bushfire
- 953,000 homes vulnerable to flooding-
- 17,500 properties threatened by coastal erosion
- 169,000 households are on the public housing waitlist — a 9% increase since 2014.
Each year, 23,000 Australians are displaced by floods, bushfires and cyclones — a figure projected to rise sharply as climate impacts accelerate. At the same time, Australia is grappling with a shortfall of more than 640,000 affordable homes, while homelessness services are forced to turn away 30% of people seeking help.
"Climate disasters are hitting communities that are already housing-vulnerable," said Dr Timothy Heffernan, co-author of the symposium report.
"When you have 6.5 million homes at risk from bushfires, floods or coastal erosion, and a housing system that can't meet existing demand, every disaster becomes a humanitarian crisis that extends far beyond the immediate impact zone."
The symposium, which brought together 125 professionals from housing, homelessness, emergency management and government sectors, documented how disasters create "secondary crises" that ripple through entire regions. Construction workers flood disaster zones, driving up rents and displacing vulnerable residents, whilst people already experiencing homelessness compete with newly displaced families for scarce emergency accommodation.
Kate Colvin, CEO of Homelessness Australia, warned that the nation's most vulnerable citizens are bearing the brunt of this convergence.
"We're seeing a hierarchy emerge where people who lose housing assets in disasters get support, whilst those who were already sleeping rough, couch surfing, or in crisis accommodation are pushed further to the margins," Colvin said. "With over 280,000 people supported by homelessness services last year and services already overwhelmed, every major disaster threatens to tip thousands more into homelessness."
Dr Heffernan noted that Australia’s existing disaster response systems are not equipped to handle this scale of displacement. "Hotels and motels fill up immediately, caravan parks are often in flood-prone areas themselves, and there's nowhere for people to go for medium-term recovery. We're asking an already strained system to absorb sudden surges of thousands of displaced people."
Australian Red Cross Head of Humanitarian Diplomacy, Emergencies, Andrew Coghlan, described the situation as a “compounding crisis.”
“What we’re seeing is the collision of changing climate impacts with an already stretched housing system,” Coghlan said. “Every extreme weather event now has the potential to push thousands more into homelessness. Recovery isn’t just about rebuilding homes — it’s about ensuring people have somewhere safe to go in the first place.”
The symposium's key finding calls for urgent establishment of a National Disaster Housing and Homelessness Framework to integrate climate adaptation with housing policy. Recommendations include pre-disaster planning for emergency accommodation, rapidly deployable modular housing systems, and coordinated training across sectors.
Ms Colvin emphasised that both homelessness and disasters are fundamentally preventable.
"Neither homelessness nor disasters are simply 'natural' – they are shaped by decisions about where we build, how we plan, and the protections we put in place," she said. "We have the knowledge and tools to build resilient communities where everyone has safe housing. What we need now is the commitment to invest in solutions."
The report warns that without immediate action, Australia risks creating a two-tiered society where housing security determines disaster survival, with potentially hundreds of thousands more citizens cycling through displacement and homelessness as extreme weather events intensify.
Dr Heffernan noted the urgency: "Climate change isn't waiting for us to fix our housing crisis,
and our housing crisis isn't pausing for disaster recovery. These forces are accelerating together, and we have a rapidly closing window to respond effectively."
The symposium was supported by Australian Red Cross, Homelessness Australia, and HowWeSurvive UNSW, with generous funding from the BHP Foundation and Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation.
Nick Lucchinelli [email protected] +61422229032
Australian Red Cross: [email protected]
