New research using population-wide administrative tax data by e61 Institute researchers Jack Buckley and Silvia Griselda provides the clearest picture to date of who is leaving teaching, why, and what happens next.
From 2009 to 2021, the percentage of school teachers quitting the profession each year fell from 5.9% to 5.1%, and it is now lower than attrition in all other occupations, including midwives and nurses, medical practitioners, and defence force members, firefighters and police.
Much of the reduction in the number of teachers leaving the profession has been driven by teachers in their first five years after university whose attrition rates have almost halved from 4% to 2.3%.
Yet challenges remain. Attrition is not spread evenly: Teachers in very remote areas—especially the Northern Territory—and those in special education have significantly higher rates.
Higher academic aptitude teachers are also particularly likely to leave. “Teachers who entered university with ATARs above 90 are 23% more likely to exit the profession, often moving to better-paid roles outside education.” said e61 Research Manager Silvia Grisela.
Importantly, financial motives do not seem to be a major driver of most teachers' decision to leave the profession.
“Most teachers who leave earn less over the long run than those who stay. After 10 years, ex-teachers earn around $21,000 or 36% less than their peers who remained in the profession,” said e61 Research Manager Dr Silvia Griselda.
Dr Griselda said that not all attrition is harmful. One in three teachers who change jobs stay within the education sector—working as education aides, early childhood educators, or education advisers. Many others transition into caring professions, especially following the expansion of the NDIS.
The report also identifies pipeline pressures that are undermining teacher supply.
Dr Griselda said: “Our findings challenge the idea that teacher attrition is spiraling out of control. The bigger issue is that fewer students are entering teaching degrees in the first place. If we want a sustainable workforce, we need to focus not just on retention but also on attracting more people into the profession.”
Senior Research Economist Jack Buckley said: “New student enrolments in teaching have barely grown in 15 years, lagging well behind other fields like nursing.
“Combined with the general decline in completion rates across university courses, slower growth in enrolments has significantly reduced the pipeline of new teachers entering the profession relative to the number of graduates entering other professions such as nursing.”
The research calls for targeted policies in high-attrition settings and a renewed effort to boost enrolments in teacher education.
Contact details:
Charlie Moore: 0452 606 171