SYDNEY, Monday 15 September 2025 — The National Climate Risk Assessment, released today, lays out the catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems across Australia if we fail to reduce climate pollution fast enough and limit warming to 1.5 degrees.
The report paints a frightening future of increasingly deadly heatwaves, destructive fire seasons, extreme downpours, rising seas, and mega-droughts not seen since European settlement with cascading impacts on our health, food and water security, infrastructure, livelihoods and ecosystems.
The report comes as the Government prepares to release its 2035 climate plan under the Paris Agreement and is bidding with Pacific nations to co-host the COP31 climate conference. It warns that extreme weather events may lead to the forced displacement of some high-risk communities, with major impacts on local economies and cultural heritage.
Greenpeace is calling on the Albanese Government to deliver a strong, science-backed climate plan to safeguard our communities from escalating disasters, instead of protecting coal and gas corporation profits.
Dr Simon Bradshaw, Climate Expert at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “What the Albanese Government does now, in the wake of this extremely confronting report, will shape the lives of communities throughout Australia. It is their duty to protect us, and it will be a shameful legacy if they don’t.
“Communities in Australia are already facing the harsh reality of life on a fast heating planet — from extreme heat and longer fire seasons to record-breaking floods and disastrous algal blooms — and the National Climate Risk Assessment has made it clear just how much worse things could get.
“The Government sat on this crucial report for months, depriving Australians of essential information needed to plan for their future. We expect better than this.
“In the wake of this report, and amid harmful input from lobby groups like the Business Council of Australia, who are canvassing a weak climate target, the Australian Government has a clear choice: lock communities into a future of worsening disasters, health crises and rising costs — or finally put the safety of our communities first.
“The Albanese Government has been given an overwhelming mandate from the Australian people to take stronger action to tackle the climate crisis. It must respond to this report by setting a strong, science aligned climate target of net zero emissions by 2035, and committing to a timeline for the fast, fair phase-out of fossil fuels including gas.
“The Climate Risk Assessment has shown us not only what we have to lose, but, more importantly, just how much we can and must fight to save. Everything we love is at stake.”
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Images and videos for media use available here
Headshot of Dr Simon Bradshaw available here.
NOTES TO EDITORS
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The National Climate Risk Assessment provides projections for Australia’s climate future under three different warming scenarios (+1.5°C, +2°C, +3°C) and across three time horizons (now, 2050, 2090).
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It assesses the change in climate hazards including extreme temperatures, drought, bushfires, floods, cyclones and marine heatwaves, and how these will impact communities, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, defence and national security, the economy, health, and our natural environment.
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The National Climate Risk Assessment is accompanied by a National Adaptation Plan, designed to help Australia better prepare for and manage the growing risks of climate change.
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The report shows that while climate change affects us all, the impacts are not felt equally. Northern Australia, outer suburban areas, and remote communities stand out as particularly vulnerable. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples experience particularly severe impacts.
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Under all warming scenarios, Australians will experience an increase in climate impacts from current levels, including:
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More intense and frequent extreme weather events - including in places and at times we have not experienced before.
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Reduced time between disasters.
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Higher sea levels and increased coastal erosion.
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Oceans becoming warmer and more acidic, with more frequent and longer marine heat waves.
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Greater time spent in drought.
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The Risk Assessment states that high risk communities are likely to migrate, which could disrupt local economies, social networks, traditional identities and cultural heritage.
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The potential impact on our ocean stands out as particularly severe.
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Coral reefs will face ever increasing risks of bleaching and biodiversity loss. Marine heatwaves will become more frequent, particularly in the Tasman Sea. In Antarctic waters, more acidic oceans will mean some areas may become incapable of supporting the development of shells and coral skeletons.
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The report reveals substantial differences in the impacts associated with warming of 1.5°C (the temperature goal under the Paris Agreement) and higher levels of warming. For example:
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With global warming of 1.5°C, we will see around a 50% (1.5x) increase in the number of severe/extreme heatwave days. With warming of 3°C we would see around a 4x increase.
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For the ocean, with global warming of 1.5°C, we would see the time spent in under damaging marine heatwaves roughly double. With warming of 2°C it would be a 5x increase, and for warming of 3°C it would be a 10x increase.
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Contact details:
For more information or interviews contact Lucy Keller on 0491 135 308 or [email protected]