The Centre for National Security Ethics (CeNSE) has released an intelligence assessment on the likely trend in US Presidential politics in 2026. It concludes that President Trump will likely undertake an armed coup in the months leading up to the mid-term election on 3 November next year.
The short article addresses precedents for such a “self-coup”, including Trump’s failed attempt on 6 January 2021. It summarises intelligence indicators of a likely coup.
The article has been written by a researcher with significant experience in intelligence assessment, as well as academic study over several decades of the associated fields of political violence, terrorism and extremism.
CeNSE prefers not to reveal or comment on the personal identities of authors of its work or collaborators. It prefers to let the analysis speak for itself.
CeNSE has been maturing over several years but has held back on public comment until now because of the extreme need for moral leadership in national security policy in Australia. Our website, www.ethicalshield.org, is under development.
We can be contacted at mailto:[email protected] or through the Convenor, Dr Greg Austin, on +61 450190323.
Our Purpose
The purpose of the Centre for National Security Ethics (CeNSE) is to promote a much higher standard of public debate around the ethical implication of government decisions affecting the security of Australians. This applies to individual citizens and non-citizens, our communities, and the country as a whole. We are especially interested in decisions involving policing, imprisonment, use of force and state coercion in the country (including military aid to the civil power) or use of force (military and para-military power) in foreign conflicts. The centre is being launched as resources allow. In March 2025, we decided to go public to contribute to debate on the impacts on Australia of the turn by the US Administration to authoritarianism and destabilisation of the rule of law in international affairs.
Contact details:
Dr Greg Austin +61 450190323