January 6 2026
At least 6.9 million Australians living on the expanding fringes of our capital cities could be at risk from urban fires supercharged by climate pollution, a joint report from former Australian fire chiefs and the Climate Council has found.
The report comes after devastating fires claimed the life of a firefighter, and destroyed dozens of homes across New South Wales and Tasmania in December 2025.
The report When Cities Burn: Could the LA Fires happen here? details how climate pollution, from burning coal, oil and gas, is turbo-charging dangerous fire conditions. This is making LA-style urban blazes increasingly likely in parts of Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart.
The report from Climate Council and Emergency Leaders for Climate Action (ELCA) also reveals more people than ever are living in harm’s way, with populations on the outskirts of our cities up 65% on average since 2001.
Former NSW Fire Commissioner and founder of ELCA, Greg Mullins said: “Our analysis shows that Australian cities increasingly face the potential for catastrophic fires like the ones in LA earlier this year. Those fires burned in winter driven by hurricane-strength winds. Climate pollution is now worsening fire weather conditions to the point that fires can sometimes be beyond the limits of modern firefighting and prevention capabilities.”
Mr Mullins said the report should serve as a wake-up call for all Australians living in capital cities: “If you live in suburbia and think bushfires don’t concern you, think again. Nearly every Australian capital city has a dangerous mix of preconditions for a catastrophic fire like LA: the possibility of extreme dry periods; severe winds; steep slopes; bushland near homes; and a history of destructive fires,” he said.
“It’s critical that we deal with the cause of more extreme weather by drastically cutting climate pollution while properly resourcing fire and land management agencies, and preparing suburban communities for rising risks.”
Former Tasmania Fire Service Chief Fire Officer and ELCA member, Mike Brown said the December fires in Tasmania that have destroyed at least 21 homes should serve as a stark warning: “In otherwise mild conditions, extreme winds grounded firefighting aircraft and created perilous conditions on the ground for firefighters.
“Climate change is supercharging fire conditions, including extreme winds that can tip a bad fire into a catastrophic one. Studies have shown the winds in Tasmania are increasing, particularly in recent decades with record 200km/h wind gusts recorded in 1998 and 2023.”
Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie said the LA fires shocked the world because they shattered assumptions about when and where such fires can strike.
“Climate pollution has made unnatural disasters disturbingly commonplace, but the LA fires - which claimed 31 lives and destroyed 16,000 homes and buildings - still jolted the world. Australia shares many of the same dangerous conditions. If we don’t get climate pollution under control then this report shows many of our cities and communities are in the firing line.
“Every Australian in every city, suburb and town is already paying a price today for worsening fire conditions driven by climate pollution. Surviving and recovering from fires has cost us billions since 2009, and this report shows insurance premiums have jumped 78-138% since 2020 in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth bushfire danger zones.
“Households shouldn’t keep footing the bill for worsening fires while corporations selling coal, oil and gas drive up climate pollution and rake in profits. We must phase out these polluting fuels and speed up our shift to renewable energy while investing in preparing communities.”
ENDS
Also available for interview:
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Former Commissioner, ACT Emergency Services Authority, Maj Gen Peter Dunn (Retd)
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Case studies in ACT, NSW and Melbourne who have survived fires or are concerned about fires on their doorsteps.
For interviews please contact :
Jacqui Street 0498 188 528 or [email protected]
or
The Climate Council media team on [email protected] or 0485 863 063.
CITY BY CITY SNAPSHOT: KEY RISKS
Sydney
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Homes in new suburbs on Sydney’s fringe are densely packed and conducive to house to house fire spread. Homes in the northwest and southwest face twice the likelihood of fires compared to other subregions.
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There’s been a 24% growth in population in outer urban Local Government Areas (LGAs) since 2001 with 1.6 million people now living there.
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A Black Summer–scale fire entering Sydney from Penrith, Hornsby, the Northern Beaches, The Hills, Sutherland, the Illawarra or the Blue Mountains could result in thousands of homes lost, like what occurred in LA.
Melbourne
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The greatest threats lie in the northeast and east, particularly the Dandenong Ranges, Warburton Valley and Warrandyte, where dense forests meet residential areas.
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Communities in the northwest and west face less - though still significant - fire risks from patches of dry forest and extensive grasslands.
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The population on the outskirts of Melbourne has exploded since 2001, with twice as many people (2 million+) now living in outer urban LAs (up 111% since 2001).
Canberra
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Australia’s ‘bush capital’ is highly exposed to bushfires, and in many ways is one of the closest parallels in Australia to LA.
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The city is encircled by Namadgi National Park, Tidbinbilla Reserve, the Lower Cotter Catchment, and Canberra Nature Park with suburbs and homes backing directly onto forest and grassland.
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332,760 people now live in outer suburban areas of Canberra (46% growth since 2001).
Adelaide
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Declines in winter rainfall alongside rising temperatures and dry periods are lengthening fire seasons and driving more extreme fire weather (Government of South Australia 2021).
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There is significant fire danger in the Adelaide Hills due to steep terrain, fuels, heat and wind.
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407,125 people now live in outer LGAs of Adelaide (up 36% since 2001).
Perth
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Greater Perth and south west Western Australia has a climate like Los Angeles and is facing a steeper decline in rainfall than any other capital city in Australia. Winter rainfall has declined by at least 16% since 1970, with an even faster rate of decline since the turn of the century, according to the CSIRO.
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The combined heat and drought hitting Perth and surrounding regions is contributing to the dieback of trees - including Jarrah forests - leading to heavier fuel loads.
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There’s significant fire danger in the Perth Hills due to steep terrain, fuels, heat and wind.
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The population on the outskirts of Perth has exploded since 2001: 927,892 people now live in outer LGAs (up 111%).
Hobart
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Hobart is one of Australia’s most fire-exposed capitals with steep terrain, extreme winds, and areas of forest.
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Despite having fewer days of dangerous fire weather, Hobart has more fuel to burn than Melbourne. The city is hemmed in by wet and dry forests on kunanyi/Mt Wellington, with suburbs extending into bushland.
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Rainfall has declined since the 1970s while landscape fire activity has increased across the state.
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Historically, neighbourhoods such as Fern Tree, South Hobart, West Hobart, Lenah Valley, Mount Nelson, and Sandy Bay are at highest risk
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The population on Hobart’s outskirts is up by a third (33%) since 2001, with 194,493 people now living in outer suburbs.
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Studies have shown Tasmania’s west coast winds are among the strongest they’ve been in 20,000 years, and record 200km/h wind gusts in the east and south were recorded in 1998 and 2023.”
Brisbane
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Brisbane and southeast Queensland have so far escaped bushfire events on a scale of those hitting the southern states. However, fire risks are growing with more people living on the fringes of the city and climate change fuelling increases in dangerous fire weather conditions.
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Brisbane has seen a 76% growth in populations of outer suburbs since 2001 with over 1.4 million people now living in outer LGAs.
About us:
The Climate Council is an independent, community-funded organisation. We provide evidence-based information on climate change impacts and solutions to journalists, policymakers, and the wider Australian community. For further information, go to: climatecouncil.org.au Or follow us on social media: LinkedIn, Facebook, X
Emergency Leaders for Climate Action are 38 former senior Australian fire and emergency service leaders who have observed how climate change is driving increasingly catastrophic extreme weather events that are putting lives, properties and livelihoods at greater risk and overwhelming our emergency services.