As the world approaches the 2030 deadline for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with fewer than one in five targets on track, researchers warn that the next global framework risks repeating the same mistakes unless it is built on a clear and explicit theory of change.
Published in Science, the study– A theory of change approach to enhance the post-2030 sustainable development agenda – argues that while the SDGs remain a landmark achievement in creating a shared global vision for sustainable development, they were underpinned by flawed assumptions about how goal‑setting would drive real‑world action.
Through a detailed content analysis of the 2030 agenda, the 23 researchers spanning 17 research institutions globally reconstructed the “implicit theory of change” that shaped the SDGs. They found that the framework assumed global goals would naturally translate into national strategies, mobilise actors, and ultimately transform societies, without considering the impact of roadblocks that would impede change .
Lead authors of the study, Dr Cameron Allen and Associate Professor Shirin Malekpour from Monash University, said a more systematic, evidence‑based approach is needed to design the post‑2030 agenda.
“The Sustainable Development Goals gave the world a shared vision; however, goal-setting alone was never going to deliver the scale of change required. The SDGs provided direction, but not the mechanisms needed to overcome political, financial and institutional barriers,” Associate Professor Malekpour said.
“Now we need a roadmap that shows how to get there. A stronger theory of change can help turn ambition into action and ensure the next global agenda delivers the transformations people and the planet desperately need.”
The study identifies several systemic weaknesses that have hindered progress, including limited national leadership, weak incentives for business and non‑government actors, superficial voluntary reviews, missing or outdated target areas such as artificial intelligence and international spillovers, and insufficient clarity on the transformations required to achieve the goals.
With proposals for the next global sustainable development framework already emerging, the researchers argue that a systematic method is needed to assess which ideas are both impactful and politically feasible within an increasingly polarised global landscape.
The study also emphasises that societal transformations in energy, food systems, finance and governance must occur before the goals can be achieved, and that takes time
With negotiations on the post‑2030 agenda expected to begin in 2027, Dr Allen said the scientific community has a critical role to play in shaping a more effective framework.
“The SDGs were always ambitious, and full delivery was never going to be easy. They remain vital, but future success depends on a much clearer focus on implementation – understanding what is blocking change and being explicit about how transformation happens,” Dr Allen said.
“While a stronger theory of change will not solve every implementation challenge, it will provide a more solid foundation for governments, businesses and communities to drive real progress on the ground.”
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