Australia’s social housing sector is in the midst of a growth decade unparalleled since the 1980s. As revealed by new research*, the number of homes managed as public, community or Indigenous housing for very low-income earners is set to increase by 55,000 in the ten years to 2030. This is nearly three times the 20,000 social rentals added during the 2010s (as shown by the Productivity Commission’s ROGS report).
The total number of new social homes expected to come onstream during the 2020s is even larger, at 70,000, with some 45,000 of these funded by the states – led by Victoria and Queensland.
But some of these new homes are constructed under estate renewal projects, where new homes are built on the site of old. So, factoring-in the 15,000 public housing demolitions and sales anticipated over the period, the extra social rental homes available in 2030 will total 55,000 over and above 2020.
Additional to new social rental homes, and mainly thanks to federal funding, 30,000 affordable rental units are also in the pipeline for completion by 2030; these being homes targeted at low-income workers, often at 75% of market rent.
In total, therefore, the current decade is set to see the construction of 100,000 new social and affordable rental homes (see table on p2).
All of these findings come from new research by UNSW’s City Futures Research Centre*. Filling a gap in official statistics, the study amalgamated unpublished construction data secured from state and territory governments with official federal government investment program targets.
The research, focused primarily on social (rather than affordable rental) housing development, also reveals that the 55,000 extra social homes added to the national stock by 2030 will represent a net gain of 13% over the 2020 figure.
But, because this will parallel – rather than exceed – the projected increase in the household population, it will stabilise (rather than increase) social housing as a proportion of all housing. Having declined from 6% of total housing in the 1990s to 4% by 2020, Australia’s social housing will remain at this level in 2030 – just above half the OECD average of 7%.
Similarly, the sector’s projected 2020s net stock gain pales in comparison to the 2021 census-based estimate of 437,000 households with an unmet need for social housing.
Also, none of the current programs — neither state, territory nor federal — comes with committed funding beyond 2030. Aspirations to expand, or even maintain, the recent rate of social housing additions into the 2030s will call for new government resource commitments.
But, according to the report, other reforms are also needed:
“It isn’t only a question of money” said report lead author, UNSW’s Emeritus Prof Hal Pawson, “recently revived public investment needs to be paralleled by long overdue sector governance and regulatory modernisation”.
“Even maintaining recent levels of public investment, of course, presents huge political challenges” he said. “But only if these are met can Australia capitalise on all the effort so far invested in building system capacity, and in cranking up new development processes over the past few years. And, given its scale, this is a problem that can’t be significantly eased without major, co-ordinated, ongoing financial commitment by both levels of government”.
Social and affordable housing – estimated newly constructed and acquired dwellings, by program, 2020-2030
|
Funding govt(s) |
Program |
Social rental |
Affordable rental |
Total social and affordable |
|
Commonwealth |
Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) |
20 |
10 |
30 |
|
National Housing Accord (NHA) |
10 |
10 |
||
|
Social Housing Accelerator |
4 |
4 |
||
|
NT remote housing initiative1 |
1 |
1 |
||
|
Commonwealth Govt total - gross additions |
25 |
20 |
45 |
|
|
States and territories |
Self-funded investment programs 2020-20302 |
45 |
45 |
|
|
State/territory ‘NHA matching commitment’ |
10 |
10 |
||
|
State/territory total - gross additions |
45 |
10 |
55 |
|
|
All Aus govts |
Total - gross additions |
70 |
30 |
100 |
|
Less |
Losses - public housing sales and demolitions2 |
15 |
15 |
|
|
Net impact |
Net additions, allowing for losses |
55 |
30 |
85 |
Sources: All figures as published by the Commonwealth Government as program dwelling output targets, except:
1 UNSW estimate for five-year output within 10-year program
2 Estimates derived from UNSW research.
Notes: Table makes no allowance for:
- Affordable rental housing gains via ‘build to sell’ developer contributions under state/territory land-use planning policies (except perhaps as part of their ‘NHA matching commitments’)
- Affordable rental housing gains under Commonwealth Government Build to Rent tax reform obligations
- Other community housing social/affordable rental properties developed without government subsidy
- Crisis and Transitional Housing development funded by Commonwealth and state/territory governments.
*‘The Revival of Social Housing Construction in Australia 2020-2030’, by Hal Pawson and Chris Martin, UNSW City Futures Research Centre, February 2026
Contact details:
Emeritus Prof Hal Pawson – 0421 335 628
Associate Prof Chris Martin – 0407 065 760
