Monash‑led research has revealed that one in ten butterfly species globally has shifted its distribution range, with climate change and extreme weather driving nearly 80 per cent of documented movements.
The study, the largest of its kind, analysed 6,182 range‑shift records for 1,758 species across 105 countries, drawing on English and non‑English scientific literature as well as 68 expert assessments.
Lead author Dr Shawan Chowdhury, head of the Global Change Ecology Lab from Monash University’s School of Biological Sciences, said the findings expose a rapidly changing natural world, and major blind spots in how biodiversity change is monitored.
“We found butterfly species shifting their ranges on every continent where they occur. The scale is astonishing, and it’s happening far beyond the well‑studied regions of Europe and North America,” Dr Chowdhury said.
“Climate change is now a dominant force reshaping where species can survive. For many butterflies, to survive, the only option is to move, often quickly, to track suitable conditions.”
Published in Nature Ecology & Evolution, the study shows 80 per cent of species expanded their ranges, often moving into newly suitable areas as temperatures rise. At the same time, 27 per cent contracted their ranges, and 22 per cent shifted along the elevational gradients, though elevational shifts were rarely documented in the tropics, a major concern given tropical species’ narrow thermal limits.
When the researchers looked at how many species in each country had documented range shifts, five European countries stood out: the Czech Republic, Finland, Luxembourg, Spain and Sweden; each of which has records for more than half of its butterfly species.
Looking only at species known to shift their ranges within that country or elsewhere, 32 countries had documented shifts for at least a quarter of their known butterfly species, and 10 countries for more than half.
“One of the most striking insights is how much evidence we were missing,” Dr Chowdhury said.
“When we included non‑English studies and expert knowledge, a completely different global picture emerged. Without these sources, we would have dramatically underestimated the global patterns of range shifts, especially overlooking key patterns in the tropics, where 80 per cent of insect species live.”
The research highlights notable geographic gaps: Central Africa, Southeast Asia, New Guinea and the Amazon Basin remain critically under‑represented despite being global biodiversity hotspots.
“These are the regions where species are most vulnerable and where we know the least,” Dr Chowdhury said.
“Tropical butterflies already live close to their upper thermal limits. Even small increases in temperature can push them beyond their limit, especially when land‑use change is breaking up the very habitats butterflies rely on to move and track suitable climates.”
The authors warn that without equitable, standardised and multilingual biodiversity monitoring, conservation efforts risk being guided by an incomplete and biased evidence base.
“Butterflies are early‑warning indicators and are signaling a warning across the entire planet. If their ranges shift this dramatically, it signals profound changes across ecosystems” Dr Chowdhury said.
“We urgently need coordinated global monitoring, especially in the tropics, to understand what species are doing, where they’re going, and how we can protect them. This is particularly important to meet the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets.”
The study shows that climate‑driven redistribution is not a future scenario but a current, accelerating reality, one that demands new conservation strategies capable of responding to species on the move.
Read the research paper: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03117-y
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