- Fuel added 0.77 percentage points to annual inflation: rising automotive fuel prices accounted for almost one-fifth of Australia’s 4.34% inflation rate in the year to September 2026.
- Electrification could reduce exposure to oil shocks: Endgame Analytics' illustrative model found inflation would have been 3.75% if household driving had been electric, after accounting for charging costs.
- Fuel price rises are hitting petrol drivers hard: for a small SUV driven 15,000 km a year, higher fuel prices added an estimated $442 to annual costs, compared with $48 from higher electricity prices for an EV.
- EVs are becoming more affordable to buy: base-model prices for the ten best-selling EVs fell by an average of 3.1% over the year, while Australia’s cheapest new EV is now $19,990 driveaway.
MEDIA RELEASE - 10 November 2026
Almost one-fifth of Australia’s annual inflation came directly from rising petrol and diesel prices, highlighting the potential for electric vehicles to protect household budgets and reduce Australia’s exposure to global oil shocks.
New analysis by Endgame Analytics for the Electric Vehicle Council finds that rising automotive fuel prices contributed 0.77 percentage points to Australia’s 4.3% annual inflation rate in September.
With petrol and diesel prices up 23.6% over the year, the findings highlight a broader economic benefit of electric vehicles: reducing Australia’s dependence on fuels whose prices are largely determined overseas.
“Petrol and diesel prices aren’t just hurting motorists at the bowser. They’re adding to inflation across Australia,” said Electric Vehicle Council CEO, Julie Delvecchio.
“Electric vehicles give Australians a way to break that direct link with global oil prices. The more of our transport we electrify, the less exposed we become to future fuel price shocks and inflation.”
EVs reduce exposure to fuel costs
To illustrate Australia’s exposure to oil price shocks, Endgame Analytics modelled what inflation would have looked like if all household driving had been electric. After allowing for charging costs, annual inflation would have been around 0.6 percentage points lower. This is an illustrative scenario, not a forecast of overnight adoption.
When translated into running costs, rising fuel prices added an estimated $442 to the annual cost of running a small SUV 15,000km per year. By comparison, higher electricity prices added an estimated $48 to the cost of running an EV – around a tenth of the cost.
EV price moderation provides broad economic benefits
EVs are also getting cheaper to buy while rising petrol and diesel costs are pushing up the cost of living. List prices for the base models of Australia’s ten best-selling EVs fell by an average of 3.1% in the year to September. Australia’s cheapest new EV is now $19,990 driveaway.
More than 500,000 battery electric vehicles are now on Australian roads, and each additional EV sold reduces the number of households directly exposed to petrol price rises.
“Inflation is squeezing household budgets, and every rate rise adds to that pressure,” Ms Delvecchio said. “The more Australians who drive electric, the less exposed households and the wider economy are to oil price shocks.”
“Getting more Australians into EVs faster is good economic policy. That means keeping the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard strong, maintaining the FBT exemption and building more chargers.”
Endgame Analytics Director Martin Chow said: “Our estimate compares the cost of petrol for household driving with the cost of the electricity needed to cover the same distance in an EV. It assumes charging costs 80% less than petrol, and excludes vehicle purchase prices and indirect effects, such as freight."
Editorial Notes:
Endgame removed fuel from the ABS CPI basket, replaced it with the electricity needed to cover the same distance, rescaled the basket to 100% and re-ran the past year's ABS price changes. See table below.
|
Step, 12 months to September 2026 |
Value |
|---|---|
|
Headline CPI inflation (ABS) |
4.34% |
|
Automotive fuel price change |
+23.6% |
|
Electricity price change |
+12.8% |
|
Fuel's share of the basket, September 2025 |
3.27% |
|
Fuel removed from inflation |
−0.77 pp |
|
Electricity added for charging (80% cheaper than fuel: 0.65% of basket) |
+0.08 pp |
|
Rest of basket rescaled to 100% |
+0.10 pp |
|
CPI inflation if all household driving were electric |
3.75% |
|
Difference |
−0.59 pp |
Price changes and fuel's share are from the ABS CPI, September 2026 (Tables 1, 3 and 4). The 80% charging saving comes from Endgame's ownership cost model. Charging cost is based on 80% home charging on an EV tariff ($0.08 per kWh) and 20% public charging (at $0.70 per kWh) which is representative of an average EV owner with access to home charging.
This is a what-if comparison, not a measured effect. It covers fuel and charging costs only; vehicle prices and flow-on effects such as freight are excluded. The ABS keeps CPI weights fixed between updates (next in January 2027), so EV uptake does not change the published CPI in the short term.
Spending comparison: The increase in spending was based on a suburban family driving a small petrol SUV 15,000 km a year. At the ABS average petrol price for September 2025 ($1.81 a litre), that’s a fuel bill of about $1,870 a year. Fuel prices then rose 23.6%, adding $442. Charging an EV for the same driving costs 80% less, about $374 a year, and electricity prices rose 12.8%, adding $48.
Vehicle price comparison: EVC Analysis on average change in the list price of the base model of each of the ten best-selling EVs between November 2025 to November 2026. Motor vehicle prices are from ABS CPI Table 3.
About us:
About the Electric Vehicle Council: The Electric Vehicle Council is the peak national body representing the electric vehicle industry in Australia. Representing members from across the value chain of the electric vehicle sector, the EVC is a trusted advisor and advocate to governments and decision makers across Australia. Our mission is to drive investment and awareness to accelerate the electrification of transport, for a more sustainable and prosperous Australia. The EVC recently released its 10th annual State of EVs Report - the definitive annual snapshot of Australia's EV industry. Access your copy here
About Endgame Analytics: Endgame Analytics is a boutique, technology-led consultancy specialising in providing expert mathematical and economic advice. Established in January 2021, we exist to empower our clients with the right information to direct the best outcomes. We bring together a unique combination of expertise in analytics, optimisation, strategy, and deep domain knowledge across industries, with a strong focus on energy and transport.
Contact details:
Todd Hayward - 0412 205 151