Shaw and Partners has released a comprehensive new sector report forecasting a multi-year uranium price spike to US$200 per pound, arguing that structural supply deficits, accelerating nuclear demand and tightening fuel contracting cycles are setting the stage for a powerful and sustained re-rating of the uranium market.
The report, Uranium Super-Cycle – upgrading U3O8 to US$200/lb, outlines a materially upgraded uranium price deck and recommends investors hold an overweight position to the uranium sector in equity portfolios.
Under its revised assumptions, Shaw and Partners now forecasts:
- Uranium spot price of US$175/lb in 2027 (previously US$150/lb)
- Uranium spot price of US$200/lb in 2028 (previously US$150/lb)
- A long-term realised uranium price of US$120/lb from 2032, up from US$90/lb
The firm’s upgrade follows a sharp market signal in January 2026, when uranium spiked from US$85/lb to US$102/lb in just three days.
Andrew Hines, Head of Research at Shaw and Partners, said that move highlighted just how sensitive the uranium market is to incremental buying pressure.
“The January spike demonstrated how quickly this market can reprice. A relatively modest amount of financial buying was enough to move the spot price materially. If utilities return to the term market in size, we believe the upside move could be significant,” Mr Hines said.
A Structural Supply Gap Is Forming
The report outlines a growing disconnect between uranium supply and long-term nuclear demand.
Global nuclear capacity currently consumes approximately 180Mlb of U3O8 annually, while existing mine production is only about 150Mlb. According to the World Nuclear Association’s reference scenario, nuclear capacity could expand materially by 2040, lifting uranium consumption towards 390Mlb per annum.
Shaw and Partners’ modelling indicates that:
- New mine supply requirements this decade could exceed 350Mlb when depletion of existing mines is factored in
- Structural supply deficits could exceed 200Mlb per year in the coming decades unless new large-scale projects are brought into production
Mr Hines said the market may be underestimating the difficulty of delivering new uranium supply at scale.
“On paper there are new projects slated for development, but in practice these are technically complex, capital intensive and often in challenging jurisdictions. We think it is increasingly likely that uranium supply becomes the rate limiter for global nuclear expansion.”
Utilities Still Under-Contracted
Despite tightening fundamentals, utilities have not yet returned to replacement-level contracting.
In 2025, utilities contracted materially less uranium than annual reactor consumption levels, implying ongoing inventory draw-downs. Shaw and Partners believes that this behaviour is not sustainable over the medium term.
“Utilities are relatively well covered in the short term, but they are not fully covered beyond 2027. Given the long lead times in uranium contracting, 2026 could be the year where we see a meaningful acceleration in activity,” Mr Hines said.
Importantly, uranium accounts for only 5–10% of the total cost of nuclear power generation.
“That cost dynamic means utilities are far more focused on security of supply than marginal price differences. If they need pounds, they will pay the price required to secure them.”
Nuclear Policy Momentum and AI Demand
The report highlights powerful macro tailwinds underpinning uranium demand.
Governments globally are prioritising energy security and decarbonisation, with nuclear increasingly viewed as essential to meeting net-zero targets.
At the same time, electricity demand growth has re-emerged, driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure, hyperscale data centres and electrification trends.
The United States, China and India have all set ambitious nuclear expansion targets, while strategic and sovereign buyers are securing long-dated supply agreements, further tightening available inventory in Western markets.
“The narrative around nuclear has shifted decisively. Energy security, decarbonisation and AI-driven power demand are converging. Nuclear is no longer a fringe solution - it is becoming central to energy policy,” Mr Hines said.
Equity Implications and Valuation Uplift
The upgrade to Shaw and Partners’ uranium price deck has resulted in material increases to valuations and price targets across its covered uranium equities.
The firm’s preferred exposures are:
- Paladin Energy
- NexGen Energy
- Silex Systems
- Bannerman Energy
- Peninsula Energy
- Boss Energy
Mr Hines said equity markets have not yet fully priced in the revised long-term uranium outlook.
“We were already above consensus in our pricing assumptions. After updating our supply-demand modelling and aligning with the latest global nuclear outlook, we have become more constructive again.”
“In our view, this is still early in the contracting cycle. As term market activity accelerates, we believe equity valuations could respond accordingly.”
About the Report
The Shaw and Partners Sector Report, current as at 18 February 2026, provides updated uranium supply-demand modelling, revised short, medium and long-term price forecasts, valuation sensitivities and earnings revisions across the uranium sector.
The full report is available to Shaw and Partners clients.
Contact details:
David Tasker
Chapter One Advisors
T: 043 112 936
E: [email protected]
