Consumers may soon see products containing cocoa-free chocolate appearing on shelves as confectionery manufacturers look to manage increased volatility in the price and supply of cocoa beans, according to newly-released research from Rabobank.
In the global report, Beyond the bean: ‘Big chocolate’ explores cocoa-free pathways, the specialist food and agribusiness bank’s RaboResearch division says food companies are pursuing a number of different technologies which could see cocoa beans swapped out for more reliably-sourced alternatives with less price volatility, including lab-grown, fermented and upcycled ‘cocoa’.
With the global cocoa market recently experiencing its most turbulent period in decades – with climate challenges disrupting supply and causing historically high price spikes – cocoa-free innovation in chocolate “is moving from niche experiments to strategic initiatives” as manufacturers look to diversify their ingredient options, the report says.
“Today cocoa-free (chocolate product) volumes are negligible, but partnerships between startups and major food companies show that diversification is shifting from niche experiments to a more deliberate part of the innovation agenda,” RaboResearch says.
The report notes, however, that these cocoa substitutes are unlikely to turn up in standard or premium chocolate bars any time soon and are destined for use as ‘compound’ chocolate ingredients, such as coatings, fillings and inclusions in confectionery, bakery goods and desserts. “Core chocolate formats remain the hardest to replicate, so early adoption will concentrate on compound applications,” it says.
Deep systemic challenges
The report says cocoa’s “future is under strain”, with the global sector navigating climate and disease challenges, supply disruption and price volatility, as well as facing increasing pressure from tightening deforestation regulations.
Cocoa prices surged to an unprecedented USD 11,900 per metric ton in late 2024 – more than four times the historical average – before correcting sharply by late 2025.
However, they remain at levels approximately double what they were in 2023, prior to the 2024 price surge, according to RaboResearch analyst Paul Joules.
And for Australia, he said, “these high prices have been felt in consumers’ hip pockets, coming through in increased chocolate prices”.
Behind these global cocoa price swings lie deeper “systemic challenges”, the report says.
“Cocoa is grown almost entirely in equatorial regions, with West Africa supplying more than 60 per cent of global output (although new growing areas are emerging in Latin America and Asia). The crop is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall shifts and recent seasons have brought erratic weather, prolong droughts and disease outbreaks such as swollen shoot virus,” it says. “Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana – the two largest producers – have seen yields fall sharply. And, while replanting programs are underway, timelines for recovery remain uncertain.”
Sustainability pressures also compound the risk, RaboResearch says. “Cocoa farming is linked to deforestation and biodiversity loss and compliance requirements are tightening,” the report says. “Meanwhile, climate models project that up to 50 per cent of current cocoa-growing areas could become unsuitable by 2050 if adaptations aren’t implemented.”
For chocolate manufacturers, the “roller coaster of the past 18 months has left a lasting mark”, extending “beyond financials”, RaboResearch says. “Procurement strategies have been upended, margins squeezed and reformulation accelerated,” it says.
One response to this has been cocoa-free innovation in chocolate.
Three alternatives
The world’s biggest cocoa suppliers and top snack manufacturers are investing in three distinct technological pathways to substitute cocoa beans, RaboResearch says – lab-grown cocoa for long-term security supply, fermentation-based options for short-term reformulation and scalable growth plus upcycled ingredient systems for cost-sensitive, high-volume applications.
“Each track strikes a different balance between the sensory performance of its end product, its scalability and its environmental impact,” Mr Joules said.
Lab-grown cocoa uses plant cell cultures to produce cocoa powder and cocoa butter in bioreactors, aiming to replicate the full cocoa “matrix” without farming.
“It is the only cocoa-free technology that offers a theoretical route to chocolate ‘bar-grade’ sensory experience and long-term supply security, but it is still in the pilot stage,” Mr Joules said.
“In theory, lab-grown cocoa is identical to cocoa, but it is a long-horizon play that is still highly experimental. Consumer acceptance is untested and there are significant hurdles of cost, scale and regulatory approval.”
Fermentation transforms plant-based inputs – such as oats, sunflower seeds, carob, fava beans, barley and grape seeds – into chocolate-like ingredients, and is the most advanced and scalable route for near-term cocoa-free chocolate innovation, the report says, with “leading players now scaling up for industrial production”.
Mr Joules said this cocoa bean substitute is more suited for reformulating coatings, fillings and inclusions for mainstream snack and bakery formats, rather than replicating core chocolate bars. “While fermented solutions deliver chocolate-like profiles, there is a challenge replicating the rich, complex flavour of traditional chocolate, especially for premium products,” he said.
‘Upcycled’ cocoa-free solutions, on the other hand, repurpose agricultural by-products – such as brewers’ spent grain – into cocoa-like components for compound chocolate applications, such as coatings and fillings in snack products.
Mr Joules said this format had the sustainability benefit of turning waste streams into value-added ingredients and also had a cost advantage for high-volume applications.
Cocoa remains backbone
Cocoa, however, remains the backbone of chocolate, the report says – “its taste, authenticity and emotional pull are hard to replicate”.
But, RaboResearch notes, “this is not about replacing cocoa – it’s about creating options that add resilience, support cost stability, sustainability and flexibility”.
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Rabobank Australia & New Zealand Group is a part of the international Rabobank Group, the world’s leading specialist in food and agribusiness banking. Rabobank has more than 125 years’ experience providing customised banking and finance solutions to businesses involved in all aspects of food and agribusiness. Rabobank is structured as a cooperative and operates in 38 countries, servicing the needs of more than nine million clients worldwide through a network of more than 1000 offices and branches. Rabobank Australia & New Zealand Group is one of Australasia’s leading agricultural lenders and a significant provider of business and corporate banking and financial services to the region’s food and agribusiness sector. The bank has 87 branches throughout Australia and New Zealand.